Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 4.002968 4.701670 5.475167 6.393408 7.452136 8.632890 10.047838
2025-09-07 2.969614 3.918594 5.083575 6.611486 8.554350 10.933379 14.057257
2025-09-14 2.256474 3.286791 4.666470 6.631767 9.338694 12.912066 17.957648
2025-09-21 1.782695 2.829099 4.339116 6.646529 10.045151 14.820203 21.976665
2025-09-28 1.446790 2.478391 4.068883 6.653398 10.687911 16.667662 26.095484
2025-10-05 1.320163 2.414107 4.198165 7.251129 12.253388 20.002361 32.738196
2025-10-12 1.151880 2.241952 4.117051 7.485977 13.261357 22.581970 38.498924
2025-10-19 1.015750 2.095653 4.047581 7.715643 14.269575 25.247737 44.655409
2025-10-26 0.876891 1.914773 3.882867 7.744443 14.922127 27.376970 50.125629
2025-11-02 0.731433 1.690554 3.598249 7.504619 15.052887 28.609988 54.169589
2025-11-09 0.598857 1.464919 3.271112 7.128636 14.871174 29.251436 57.208244
2025-11-16 0.513064 1.322943 3.087519 7.004554 15.143644 30.727029 61.873858
2025-11-23 0.442219 1.203024 2.935694 6.934145 15.534947 32.507360 67.373029
2025-11-30 0.406118 1.159721 2.945776 7.213173 16.679610 35.866672 76.246069
2025-12-07 0.358877 1.077844 2.853556 7.250685 17.317211 38.283994 83.504030
2025-12-14 0.317328 1.001546 2.761022 7.272182 17.919546 40.685550 90.954572
2025-12-21 0.280888 0.930897 2.669745 7.281567 18.492683 43.077862 98.603717
2025-12-28 0.278034 0.957239 2.830817 7.931797 20.617043 48.979289 114.150765
2026-01-04 0.257717 0.926300 2.835288 8.187177 21.837606 53.021518 126.058431
2026-01-11 0.239092 0.896413 2.837537 8.436717 23.072088 57.206771 138.636207
2026-01-18 0.214823 0.842264 2.762140 8.468029 23.769016 60.234968 148.899063
2026-01-25 0.184597 0.760015 2.590030 8.207562 23.692571 61.461484 155.183287
2026-02-01 0.154613 0.670225 2.377776 7.799097 23.176713 61.591628 158.936815